Waiting for Taillon: A Dispatch from the Very Recent Past
Dear Future Self,
While you have undoubtedly gained peace over the few days since this letter was written, I exist in a state of frantic paralysis. When I woke up and opened Twitter this morning, I learned of this:
My present state is doomed to a fate of permanent unknowing. I will never learn the outcome of the Jameson Taillon-to-the-Yankees rumors as I decay into the past. I envy you, Future Self, for by the time you read this you will know whether the deal has come to fruition, fallen apart, or been usurped by another team.
As you surely recall, my day is now ruined. The antecedent to a trade is rarely memorable– even less so if the trade fails to consummate. I expect you’ll have forgotten all about my anguish by now. That is why I preserve this written time capsule for you in hopes you won’t relive my mistakes.
Jameson Who?
The first step upon learning our favorite team might acquire an exciting player is to access prior knowledge. In the few seconds before his Baseball-Reference page loads, I recollect that Taillon was a high draft pick by the Pirates and subsequently a top prospect. I think he’s been successful when healthy– something of a #2 starter maybe?– but he’s had some health issues.
Ah, okay good! His page has loaded just in time for the next phase to set in: The Questions. First things first– is it pronounced “tail-OWN?” “Tie-ON?” Somewhere in between? Apparently BRef says it’s “TIE-own,” so now I’ll sound like less of an idiot when I talk about him.
I’ll get to more advanced stats in a minute, but a 3.67 ERA is good, and although he doesn’t generate a ton of strikeouts, he won’t give away many free passes either. Probably a pitch-to-contact dude; I’ll have to look into his arsenal later. And, yep, durability is a problem. Only seven starts in 2019 and none last year. Making a mental note to check into why he missed time. One more thing to find on this page, and wow, I see why the Yankees want him– three more years of team control and just a $2.25 million salary last season, his first arbitration year.
From there, I’ll head over to Baseball Savant for a deeper dive. Since Taillon didn’t pitch in 2020, they have his velocity bell curves from 2019 right on top. His fastball averages 95 mph, which is good, but his secondaries (89 mph slider, 82 mph curve, and 88 mph changeup) are way harder than league average. I can assume he probably gets most of his swings-and-misses from them. Also, we’re talking about a Pirates pitcher, and their pitching philosophies are notoriously five years behind everyone else’s. If I’m right, the Yankees will probably teach him to use his fastball less and locate it up, with the breaking pitches pounding the bottom of the zone.
Scrolling down to his pitch tracking reveals that I’m partially correct. Taillon threw his slider more than any other pitch (when you break the fastball into four-seam and sinker), but the sinker did indeed get hit pretty hard. His new team (if he actually does get traded) will do well to cut down on the sinker or eschew it altogether.
Time to check on those injuries, so I’ll navigate over to his Wikipedia page. Looks like he’s had two Tommy Johns. One TJ on the rap sheet isn’t a big deal, but two is concerning. He’s also a cancer survivor. Good for him.
And In Return?
Right around this time I remember that trades work both ways. The Yankees will have to give up some goods in order to get a talented, controllable, cheap starting pitcher. According to MLB Trade Rumors– which I’ve refreshed about a dozen times since I embarked on this journey– Pittsburgh is “said to be looking for high-ceiling prospects, even if that means taking players who are further away from reaching the Majors.” Considering that they’re one of the worst teams in MLB, this makes sense.
Baseball Prospectus just released their Yankees Top Ten Prospects list a few weeks ago. Up top at #1 and #3, we have a pair of major league-ready pitchers in Deivi García and Clarke Schmidt. I doubt García is part of the return; the Yankees expect him to be close to a Taillon-caliber pitcher right now, so they wouldn’t gain much in that swap. Schmidt alone might not be enough, and if MLBTR is to be believed, his proximity to the majors doesn’t entice Pittsburgh.
The #2 prospect in the system fits the description perfectly– Jasson Dominguez. He’s a switch-hitting center fielder who draws Mike Trout and Mickey Mantle comparisons, but he’s not even 18 years old and he hasn’t faced stateside pitching yet. If he reaches his potential, Yankee fans will never forgive the team for letting him go, but his nickname is “The Martian,” and that’s about as far away from the majors as he is right now.
Then there’s the post-prospect guys who could be traded. Gleyber Torres is surely off the table, but Clint Frazier isn’t. Neither is Miguel Andújar, though his value isn’t very high right now. More than likely, the Pirates, boy how far they’ve fallen, will command multiple young players in return. If the Yankees can swing the deal without parting with Dominguez, that’s a huge win.
The Waa-aa-aaiting Is the Hardest Part
How many times have I scrolled through Twitter by now? Have I worn out the refresh button on MLBTR yet? What do you mean there’s no new update?! It’s been five whole minutes! Taillon!
By the time you read this you must know how everything turned out, but this is the torment I endure. My leisurely Sunday of football and video games is permanently tainted by the nagging need for resolution that my present self shall never find. Let this be a warning to you. You may not remember the anguish of a trade tantalized, but you will succumb to it again. It’s a repetitive cycle of doom and– okay, that’s a bit much. How about a cycle of minor irksomeness and inconvenience? In any case, it is your destiny to repeat as well as my own.
However you wish to describe it, I have no advice about how to avoid this pitfall. All fans must be trapped by trade rumors eventually. Just enjoy the carefree life you lead whilst you can. One never knows when a tweet will immobilize you.
Sincerely,
Daniel (from Sunday morning)
