Overreacting to 2020 – Fantasy Baseball Catcher Strategies
Overreacting to 2020—Catchers
Baseball fans know that last season was the most unusual season of our lifetimes due to a global pandemic. There was the initial spring training, followed by a long layoff, then a second spring training. The season was shortened to 60 games, with teams only playing teams in the same region of the country. Rosters were expanded, double-headers featured seven inning games, there was a universal DH, and extra-innings started with a runner on second. Two teams, the Marlins and Cardinals, had significant off time because of Covid breakouts, which also affected the schedules of numerous other teams.
With that in mind, the consensus during the offseason has been that we should not put too much emphasis on a 60-game season played during a pandemic. Players who outperformed expectations did so in a two-month season, which led to three qualifying pitchers with ERAs under 2.00 (Shane Bieber, Trevor Bauer, Dallas Keuchel). That last time that happened was 1972. On the other hand, some very good hitters performed well below expectations over the two-month season, including Nolan Arenado, J.D. Martinez, and Jose Altuve.
The thing is, we’re human. As much as we tell ourselves not to overreact to the results of a two-month season, we can’t seem help it. We have more vivid memories of the 2020 season than 2019 and recency bias creeps in. Rookies who debuted and performed well above expectations are like the shiny new toy that we get on our birthday.
One way this manifests itself is in the fantasy baseball world, where players coming off terrific seasons are likely being drafted higher than they should be and players who slumped in 2020 are dropping too far on draft boards. To analyze this, we can compare a player’s average draft position (ADP) in 2021 to their ADP in previous years to determine who has risen up the ranks and who has fallen out of favor based in large part on last year’s shortened schedule.
I compiled ADP data from the National Fantasy Baseball Championships website based on drafts from March 1 through March 14. I then compared this year’s ADP to previous years and sorted by position to get an idea of how fantasy baseball owners are valuing players.
Note #1: I refer to Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) below. It is a rate statistic that credits a hitter for the value of each outcome rather than treat all hits or times on base equally. It is on the same scale as On-Base Percentage (OBP) and is a better representation of offensive value than batting average, RBI, or OPS. I realize wOBA is not a fantasy baseball stat, but in general the top hitters in wOBA will be the top hitters in fantasy baseball, with the caveat that there are plenty of bad hitters who primarily provide value in fantasy baseball through stealing bases.
wOBA Scale:
- Excellent–.400 or above
- Great–.370
- Above Average–.340
- Average–.320
- Below Average–.310
- Poor–.300
- Awful–.290 or below
Note #2: I reference ATC projections below. These are composite projections created by Ariel T. Cohen using a “wisdom of the crowds” approach and are available at FanGraphs.
HELIUM GUYS
Travis d’Arnaud, Atlanta Braves
2017 ADP: 272 (376 PA, .308 wOBA)
2018 ADP: 286 (16 PA, .280 wOBA)
2019 ADP: 680 (391 PA, .314 wOBA)
2020 ADP: 243 (184 PA, .392 wOBA)
2021 ADP: 134
ADP movement: up 109 spots
2021 ATC projection: 436 PA, 53 R, 18 HR, 69 RBI, 1 SB, .264/.327/.453, .331 wOBA
Before last year, Travis d’Arnaud had one season with a better-than-average wOBA. That was in 2015, when he was 26 years old. Last year, he hit .321/.386/.533 in 44 games, with a ridiculous .411 Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP) that was second-highest in baseball for players with 150 or more plate appearances (Michael Conforto was first, at .412). d’Arnaud’s career BABIP is .280. Had the season continued for another four months, d’Arnaud’s BABIP would have dropped and his rate stats would have dropped along with it.
To be fair, it should be noted that d’Arnaud’s Statcast metrics were impressive: .298 xBA, .530 xSLG, but the small sample size factor has to be considered. How much do we weight a 184-plate appearance (PA) sample with a .392 wOBA against his previous 1,860 PA with a .309 wOBA?
Another issue with d’Arnaud heading into the 2021 season is the playing time he’s being projected for. The sources at FanGraphs have him projected for around 450 plate appearances, which is a total the 32-year-old catcher has never reached in his career. Also, the last time an Atlanta Braves catcher had 450 plate appearances in a season was 2012 (Brian McCann). Color me skeptical on Travis d’Arnaud.
Salvador Perez, Kansas City Royals
2015 ADP: 111 (553 PA, .300 wOBA)
2016 ADP: 103 (546 PA, .308 wOBA)
2017 ADP: 131 (499 PA, .329 wOBA)
2018 ADP: 100 (544 PA, .304 wOBA)
2019 ADP: 475 (DNP—injured)
2020 ADP: 153 (156 PA, .410 wOBA)
2021 ADP: 81
ADP movement: up 72 spots
2021 ATC projection: 503 PA, 59 R, 26 HR, 79 RBI, 2 SB, .260/.296/.477, .323 wOBA
I went back a few more years on the ADP for Salvador Perez because I wanted to show that he was basically the same guy for four years from 2015 to 2018 before missing the entire 2019 season with an injury that required Tommy John surgery. During those four years, Perez averaged 135 games played, 536 plate appearances, and hit .252/.284/.448, with 24 homers and 74 RBI per year. One of his best fantasy baseball assets was playing time. In an era in which many catchers play 90-110 games per year, Perez was playing 130-140. In fantasy baseball, he was generally being drafted in the 100-130 range before the missed season, then fell to 153 prior to 2020 because of concerns about how he would come back from the injury.
Last year, in 37 games, Perez hit .333/.353/.633. It was nuts, unlike anything he’d ever done before. One of the big, flashing red lights was a .375 BABIP, which is 88 points above his career mark of .287. This is not what you’d expect from a right-handed-hitting catcher with a 14th percentile sprint speed.
Looking at Statcast, Perez had a career high barrel percentage and his expected Batting Average was .318, only 15 points lower than his actual batting average. His expected slugging percentage was .611, which was 22 points lower than his actual slugging percentage, but still excellent. Perez really did hit the ball well in 2020, but it was in 37 games. Give him another 80 or 90 games and he would have regressed closer to his previous self.
After that outlier season, the ADP for Perez has jumped 72 spots to 81. In a 15-team league, that’s the difference between an 11th-round pick last year and a sixth-round pick this year, bases primarily on 37 games. Projections at FanGraphs have Perez pretty much returning to the player he was before his big 2020 season, with about a .260 batting average, .295 on-base percentage, and .480 slugging percentage. I think some helium needs to be released from the Salvador Perez balloon.
Christian Vázquez, Boston Red Sox
2018 ADP: 315 (269 PA, .240 wOBA)
2019 ADP: 582 (521 PA, .331 wOBA)
2020 ADP: 194 (189 PA, .346 wOBA)
2021 ADP: 147
ADP movement: up 47 spots
2021 ATC projection: 465 PA, 54 R, 15 HR, 55 RBI, 6 SB, .261/.316/.422, .318 wOBA
After being one of the worst hitters in baseball in 2018 (.207/.257/.283, .240 wOBA), Vázquez shocked everyone with a very respectable 2019 season. Then he was even better last year when he hit .283/.344/.457. Now he’s being drafted about even with Gary Sanchez, which was unthinkable a year ago.
Unlike Perez and d’Arnaud, Vázquez did not have the Statcast metrics to back up his hitting last year. His .283 batting average was 41 points higher than his .242 xBA and his .457 slugging was 101 points higher than his .356 xSLG. He finished 107th in wOBA and 279th in xwOBA. These are all big, red flags heading into 2021. I’m not buying what Vazquez is selling.
ANVIL GUYS
Gary Sánchez, New York Yankees
2017 ADP: 45 (525 PA, .368 wOBA)
2018 ADP: 19 (374 PA, .304 wOBA)
2019 ADP: 53 (446 PA, .346 wOBA)
2020 ADP: 78 (178 PA, .271 wOBA)
2021 ADP: 147
ADP movement: down 69 spots
2021 ATC projection: 408 PA, 51 R, 25 HR, 63 RBI, .216/.304/.468, .328 wOBA
The BABIP Gods give and the BABIP Gods taketh away. While Salvador Perez (.375 BABIP) and Travis d’Arnaud (.411 BABIP) enjoyed great fortune on their balls in play last year, Gary Sánchez was historically bad, with a .159 BABIP that was ninth-worst all-time for hitters with 170 or more plate appearances in a season. It’s not the first time Sánchez had a BABIP under .200. He did the same in 2018 (.197 BABIP). Really, it’s not surprising that he has a low BABIP because he’s getting progressively slower as he gets older and he pulled the ball more than ever last year. That meant way too many groundouts to the left side. He should have a low BABIP, but not sub-.200 low. He also had a career-high strikeout rate last year.
Sánchez burst upon the scene in 2016 with 20 homers in 53 games and a .299/.376/.657 batting line (.425 wOBA). That earned him an ADP of 45 heading into the 2017 season, which is equivalent to the final pick of the third round in a 15-team league. Then he hit .278/.345/.531, with 33 homers and 90 RBI, and his ADP moved up to 19. Yes, a catcher drafted in the second round, which is practically unheard of. It all fell apart in 2018, when Sánchez hit .186/.291/.406 in 89 games. Despite hitting under .200, his ADP only dropped to 53 and he was still the second catcher off the board after J.T. Realmuto heading into the 2019 season. He bounced back a bit with a 34-HR, 77-RBI season in 2019, but saw his ADP drop 25 spots coming into 2020, which was a disastrous season.
Sánchez is projected to be an above-average hitter again in 2021, but it’s primarily driven by slugging percentage (25 homers). His projected batting average of .216 is a big hit to his fantasy teams and there are plenty of people out there who wonder if he can even hit that well after finishing below .200 in two of the last three seasons.
Yasmani Grandal, Chicago White Sox
2018 ADP: 219 (518 PA, .352 wOBA)
2019 ADP: 121 (632 PA, .361 wOBA)
2020 ADP: 95 (194 PA, .338 wOBA)
2021 ADP: 128
ADP movement: down 33 spots
2021 ATC projection: 516 PA, 67 R, 23 HR, 68 RBI, 2 SB, .232/.350/.438, .342 wOBA
It’s surprising to see Grandal’s ADP drop 33 spots after another above-average season at the dish in 2020. He’s been a regular in the big leagues since 2014 and never had a wOBA below .324 during that time. Grandal is also the only catcher in baseball to hit 20-plus homers every year from 2016 to 2019. Had the 2020 season been a typical 162-game schedule, he likely would have made it five years in a row with 20-plus dingers.
Grandal is in a good White Sox lineup and is projected to be just about as good in 2021 as he was in 2020. According to Roster Resources, he’s slated to bat third behind Tim Anderson and Adam Eaton and ahead of José Abreu and Eloy Jiménez. That’s a nice spot to be in. I’m groovy for Grandal.
This Guy or That Guy?
Let’s wrap-up this look at risers and fallers with a good, old-fashioned game of This Guy or That Guy for players with similar ADPs in 2021.
Yasmani Grandal—128 ADP in 2021 (95 ADP in 2020)
Travis d’Arnaud—134 ADP in 2021 (243 ADP in 2020)
516 PA, 67 R, 23 HR, 68 RBI, 2 SB, .232/.350/.438, .342 wOBA—Grandal (ATC projection)
436 PA, 53 R, 18 HR, 69 RBI, 1 SB, .264/.327/.453, .331 wOBA—d’Arnaud (ATC projection)
My take: Heading into last season, there was a difference of 188 spots between Grandal at ADP 95 and d’Arnaud at ADP 243. Now they’re separated by six picks, which doesn’t make sense to me. I trust Grandal’s playing time projection more than d’Arnaud’s, for the reasons mentioned above. I also have more faith in Grandal continuing to be an above average hitter given his history than I have in d’Arnaud coming anywhere close to what he did during the shortened 2020 season.
Christian Vázquez—147 ADP in 2021 (194 ADP in 2020)
Gary Sánchez—147 ADP in 2021 (78 ADP in 2020)
465 PA, 54 R, 15 HR, 55 RBI, 6 SB, .261/.316/.422, .318 wOBA—Vázquez (ATC projection)
408 PA, 51 R, 25 HR, 63 RBI, 0 SB, .216/.304/.468, .328 wOBA—Sánchez (ATC projection)
My take: Who would have thought a few years ago that Christian Vázquez would be drafted around the same time as Gary Sánchez? This is a risk/reward pick here. If you’re the “go big or go home” type, take Sánchez for the chance he could hit 30-35 bombs again. I would take that risk.
