Age is but a Number to Adam Wainwright
At age 39, Adam Wainwright is no spring chicken. He was drafted by the Braves in 2000 and traded to the Cardinals in 2003 with Jason Marquis (remember him?) for JD Drew (remember him??).
Since then, Wainwright has won 2 World Series with the Cardinals and made 416 appearances and 349 starts, all while compiling a 3.37 ERA and cementing himself as a St. Louis legend. 21 years is a long time in any profession, even more so as a professional athlete. Further illustrating that point is the fact that Wainwright was drafted before the Cardinals 2021 first round pick, Michael McGreevy, was BORN.
It would be no surprise, nor an embarrassment to see Wainwright’s inevitable decline expedited this year, his 16th season in MLB. And yet, we’re in the dog days of August, and Wainwright is 16th in ERA in MLB, squarely between Gerrit Cole and Julio Urias. For context, Cole was drafted in 2011, Wainwright’s 6th season in the MLB, Urias was born in 1996, Wainwright’s freshman year of high school. He’s also thrown more innings than both of them in 2021. Age is but a number.
At age 39, Adam Wainwright is showing no signs of slowing down. And he’s been inarguably the Cardinals most valuable pitcher this year. Adam Wainwright has thrown 148.2 Innings this year, no other Cardinals pitcher has thrown over 100. His 2.7 WAR is twice as much as any other pitcher on the staff. Obviously, injuries have played a part in this disparity, but that is what makes Wainwright so impressive. At an age where many men are dreading the birthday cake where the number 4 precedes the other number spelled out in candles, Wainwright has taken the ball every 5th day and given the Cardinals what he’s always given them, consistency.
In his 16 MLB seasons as a Cardinal, Wainwright has only failed to surpass 100 Innings 4 times.
- The COVID shortened 2020 season is one of those times, the other is
- His first full season in MLB, where he was relegated to the bullpen.
- 2015, when he tore his achilles while batting (DH us please Manfred)
- 2018, when he had minor elbow surgery.
Availability is as important as effectiveness, as Jacob DeGrom, Tyler Glasnow and a plethora of other pitchers have illustrated this year. But how is Wainwright beating Father Time after all these years and innings on his arm?
It’s not with newly discovered velocity, a la Charlie Morton, as Wainwright has never been a flamethrower, and his average fastball velocity has never sat above 92 MPH for a full season. The answer lies in the changing of his pitch mix, and his enhanced reliance on his best pitch, ‘ol Uncle Charlie, his own nickname and the namesake for his curveball.
For as great as Wainwright has been over his career, this late career renaissance was not widely forecast. As recently as 2016, Wainwright looked to be near the end, as a 4.62 ERA and declining velocity and strikeout rate alluded towards him being near the end of his rope. He was already a St. Louis legend with 2 rings at that point, and if he chose to hang up the spikes right then he would still be forever beloved throughout Missouri.
But yet he soldiered on, and he’s having his best season since 2014. But how? L
| Age | IP | K/9 | vFA (MPH) | ERA | xERA | |
| 2016 | 34 | 198.2 | 7.29 | 90.9 | 4.62 | 4.59 |
| 2017 | 35 | 123.1 | 7.01 | 90.5 | 5.11 | 4.24 |
| 2018* | 36 | 40.1 | 8.93 | 89.2 | 4.46 | 3.98 |
| 2019 | 37 | 171.2 | 8.02 | 89.8 | 4.19 | 4.63 |
| 2020 | 38 | 65.2 | 7.40 | 89.4 | 3.15 | 4.52 |
| 2021 | 39 | 148.2 | 8.29 | 89.6 | 3.27 | 3.93 |
*= had elbow surgery
vFA – average fastball velocity
xERA – expected ERA
2016-2019 looked very much like the last gasp for Wainwright, but interesting developments were going on under the hood. For much of his career, Wainwright’s pitch mix was primarily sinker heavy, and put away the batter with the curveball, but after the disaster of 2016/17 (hitters slugged .523 against the sinker), he had to change. After coming back from elbow surgery, we saw a very different Wainwright, one that saw him choose to throw his best pitch more often than ever. And with good reason, because in his 16 seasons, hitters have only had one season with; a batting average better than .240 or a Slugging Percentage better than .360 against the curveball. The year they did? 2017, Wainwright’s worst season and one that ended with elbow surgery.
Prior to 2018, Wainwright had never thrown his curveball more than 29% of the time, so of course he came back from surgery throwing it 35.8% of the time. Every year after that Wainwright has ratcheted up his usage, crescendoing in 2020 at 38.3%. And although he’s pulled back to 35.2%, this is still his primary pitch now and batters STILL can’t do anything with it – Batters are hitting .180 against Uncle Charlie with a .315 slugging percentage in 2021. That’ll play at any age.
But that leaves us with another question, what is Wainwright throwing the other 65-ish% of the time?
| % Thrown | .BA | .SLG | EV | LA | |
| Curveball | 35.2 | .180 | .315 | 86.3 | 9 |
| Sinker | 26.7 | .172 | .221 | 92.6 | 9 |
| Cutter | 22.1 | .273 | .461 | 85.8 | 9 |
| 4 Seam Fastball | 10.4 | .319 | .660 | 94.1 | 15 |
| Changeup | 5.7 | .300 | .467 | 88.8 | 14 |
LA = Launch Angle
EV = Exit Velocity
From the chart, we can discern that Wainwright throws a medley of fastballs and his curveball, not overly complicated. But more importantly is the shape of his pitch mix, as Wainwright’s curveball is a dastardly 12-6 breaker, meaning that it drops straight down without much if any sweep. Click the hyperlink above and you can see the shape of the pitch as well as the breaking of millions of Met’s fans’ hearts. This pitch has been Wainwright’s ticket for 16 seasons and it hasn’t changed this year, as he’s just been filling up the zone with the pitch. However, there is some nitpicking that can be done with the rest of his pitch mix.
His curveball is one that has been in vogue around the league with spin rate inclined teams, as the pitches tunnel well together and are borderline indiscernible. And while Wainwright isn’t a spin rate monster, he has above average fastball spin and would probably benefit from locating the pitch at the top of the zone instead of primarily to his glove side, where it has been pummelled. He doesn’t throw hard enough to get away with leaving the fastball below the top of the zone. But alas, he may not be comfortable with throwing the high fastball, and he has a 3.27 ERA right now, so its an easy call to leave him be.
However… If he was so inclined to substitute some of the cutter usage with the 4 seam up in the zone, I believe he could shave some points off his ERA, as well as his xERA, which pegs Wainwright for some regression at 3.93.
Regardless of what Wainwright chooses to do and not do, the fact that he is pitching this well 2 weeks before age 40 – he was born 8/30/1981 – is phenomenal. He has continued to stave off Father Time, accompanied by his battery mate since 2005, Yadier Molina. With these two vets leading the way, the Cardinals hope to make another October run.
