Free Agent Outlook: Middle Infield
Right after Freddie Freeman’s caught the ball at first base that sealed the first Braves World Series victory since 1995, millions of baseball fans breathed a collective sigh of relief. Some of those people were Braves fans, and others were just happy to see the Astros lose – but there was another group more relived that the hot stove was able to start up, too. Fans of teams who had been eliminated long before Game Six of the World Series let out that sigh of relief because their time is here once again. They’re relevant again, while the Braves revel in their championship and their parade. It’s an even playing field once again. It’s time for everyone to daydream again, and to follow Rogers Hornsby’s lead: stare out the window and wait for spring. Or maybe everyone can just wait for their favorite team to sign one of the game’s top middle infield free agents.
It feels like each of the past few offseasons has been weirder than normal, and this one will be no exception – it’s looking more and more likely that there will be a work stoppage beginning in early December until MLB and the Players Association can come to terms. While it’s pretty unlikely that this will result in the 2022 season being delayed, it should at least keep most premium free agents from signing until the calendar flips to a new year. Nevertheless, it’s not too early to start up the rumor mill. I’ll be reviewing where free agents from all positions may be heading. Today’s edition starts up the with the middle infield free agent class.
Carlos Correa – Detroit Tigers
Even though the Tigers haven’t really been relevant for quite a while, this would be a rare instance of a high-profile free agent going to a bad team without surprising many people. “Bad” should be in quotations, anyway, since the Tigers look quite a bit better than you might give them credit for. After starting the season 9-24, they rebounded to play above-.500 for the rest of the season (68-61). They have a number of young building blocks, including Casey Mize, Tarik Skubal, Spencer Torkelson and Akil Baddoo. Adding Correa to the mix would officially bring an end to their rebuild, in the same vein as their past signing of Ivan Rodriguez signified their willingness to be competitive. The Tigers have already started buying by making the first notable transaction of the offseason, trading for catcher Tucker Barnhart, so clearly an aggressive bid for a shortstop upgrade could be in the offing as well. Not to mention the Tigers’ built-in connection to Correa himself – manager A.J. Hinch is plenty familiar with Correa from his time in Houston.
Correa has seemingly indicated in interviews that he will go to the highest bidder and doesn’t feel too confident about returning to Houston. The Astros reportedly offered him a five-year, $160 million contract, but they probably don’t have the payroll flexibility to go much beyond that. A fresh start and fat contract with the Detroit Tigers might be just the thing he needs as the best middle infield free agent.
Corey Seager – New York Yankees
This just makes too much sense not to happen. The Yankees’ lineup is too right-handed – Seager is a lefty. They strike out too much as a team – Seager’s career 18.5 K% is much better than league average. They have a gaping hole at shortstop – Seager plays shortstop. Also, they have a lot of money – and Seager probably likes money. The Dodgers will be strong bidders for retaining their shortstop, to be sure, but they would be better served expending their resources towards re-signing their free agent pitchers, while going after Trea Turner to pair with Gavin Lux in the middle infield spots. The Yankees would have to blow by the (current) luxury tax to get him, but that prospect shouldn’t concern the richest team in baseball much anyway. The rabid Yankees fanbase has been clamoring for them to return to the World Series, and a Wild Card loss to the Red Sox was just salt in the wound. Armchair quarterbacks – and season-ticket holders – will be expecting the Yankees to make some major moves this winter to get them back to their historical status as a Goliath in the league. Slotting Seager’s 148 wRC+ over the last two seasons into the lineup between Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton could make their middle of the order reminiscent of Murderer’s Row and help them capture an AL East title at the least.
Marcus Semien – San Francisco Giants
Semien is coming off of a career year that turned the Blue Jays’ $18 million investment in him last offseason into a stroke of brilliance. He took the field for all 162 games this season and hit 45 home runs, a new record for second basemen. Toronto would surely love to have him back, and he apparently drew rave reviews for his clubhouse presence there. However, no team is better positioned to land him than San Francisco. The Giants already had enviable payroll flexibility entering the offseason, and now that Buster Posey has shockingly decided to leave $22 million on the table and end his illustrious career, that enviable flexibility has become practically limitless. Though Posey’s retirement does free up a lot of extra money, it also creates a gaping hole in the middle of the order – something Semien could fill quite nicely. Brandon Crawford is still on hand to play shortstop for the next two years, but Semien could occupy the Swiss Army knife-type role that Kris Bryant filled in the second half. Semien would be the primary second baseman but could also play some short, third and DH to keep everyone fresh. Yes, the DH – assuming it’s coming to the NL – would allow Tommy La Stella to stay in the lineup more days than not, and out of the field, where he’s been a bit below average. A big-time bat like Semien’s is something the Giants need to add to keep their lineup productive, and bonus, he was literally born in San Francisco and played at UC Berkeley. The last argument in favor of this match is that Semien was issued a qualifying offer, and since the Giants have the worst draft selection of any team thanks to their 107 regular season wins, they have the least to lose by signing him. A return home to the Bay Area is the perfect fit for both player and team.
Trevor Story – Seattle Mariners
The Mariners narrowly missed out on a playoff spot this season and ought to be smelling blood in the water with the Astros set to lose several notable roster pieces. They already have gold glover J.P. Crawford stationed as their shortstop, but they declined their club option on Kyle Seager and will want to replace some of that departing power. Abraham Toro is on hand to play either second or third, and presumably Story would be an adept fielder at either of those positions if he’s willing to move. When asked by ESPN’s Buster Olney what Story will be looking for when picking a new team, he replied, “I’ve always said that winning is at the top for me, and culture and environment… Obviously geography. There are a bunch of different things that go into it, a lot of those that we will hold close to our vest.” To unpack that a little bit – he’s not going to win anytime soon in Colorado, and obviously he knows that. A lot has been made of how unhappy he’s been with the Rockies, and he’d probably sign with the Hanshin Tigers at this point before returning there.
The Mariners have been having problems with their own culture lately, but they did win 90 games this season, and Story may feel he is enough (along with Julio Rodríguez) to get them over the edge. As for the geography angle, Story’s a native Texan, and Seattle isn’t exactly within arm’s reach. However, being in the AL West they’d play plenty of road games in Arlington and Houston, so that could factor in Seattle’s pitch to him. Story will be a good consolation prize for some team that doesn’t walk away with Correa or Seager, and at the price point he’ll probably command, Seattle might be a good anyway.
Javier Báez – Houston Astros
Báez is no Correa, but he wouldn’t be the worst consolation prize to maintain solid production from the shortstop position. Báez is often mentioned alongside the four previous names as one of the five elite shortstops on this free agent market, but even though he somehow feels like he’s worthy of $200 million, here’s the bad news for him – he’s not elite, and his contract won’t even approach that lofty figure.
Teams have figured out by now that with Báez’s strikeout issues and inability to draw walks, his ceiling is merely that of a solid complementary piece. He’s not a guy you build a team around. My prediction is that Báez will hold out for way too long into the offseason with his insane demands, teams won’t budge on their valuations of him, and he will sign a very disappointing (to him) contract shortly before (or during) Spring Training. With all the needs the Astros have to fill this offseason, this sort of situation would fit in perfectly with their timeline, and they could potentially have him at a bargain price if he loses the game of musical chairs. There’s some upside for Báez too, though – the Astros will still be a very good team, and his flamboyant personality will probably fit in perfectly with a clubhouse that has seemingly embraced being the villains of the baseball world.
José Iglesias – Baltimore Orioles
Iglesias took a huge leap backward with the Angels after his great showing with the Orioles in the shortened 2020 season. In 23 games with the Red Sox to close out this season; however, Iglesias looked to be back on track at the plate – his .356/.406/.508 line in that miniscule sample size was almost as good as his production in Baltimore. He still only managed a 91 wRC+ between the two teams this year though, which is pretty much in line with his career 87 wRC+. What’s not in line with his career norms, however, is his defense, which was below-average for the first time ever this season – not exactly what you want from someone who’s typically been regarded as a glove-first shortstop. With so many better shortstop options out on the market this winter, Iglesias would be best served to bet on himself with a prove-it contract in a place he’d get a fair amount of playing time. Why not Baltimore, where he’s already had recent success? They have Ramón Urías as their younger everyday shortstop, but Iglesias could be in the lineup more days than not as a utility guy bouncing around the diamond, and if all goes well, he could be dealt to a contender at the deadline.
César Hernández – Pittsburgh Pirates
Ben Cherington has his work cut out for him to fix what’s been a woeful situation in Pittsburgh for a long time now, but things have slowly been moving in the right direction for them. The Pirates got solid grades on their draft choices this summer, and they have a young core developing with Bryan Reynolds, Ke’Bryan Hayes and Oneil Cruz. Cole Tucker is their de-facto starter at the keystone according to Fangraphs, but he could always fill a bench role in favor of Hernández, who has been good in his showings with the Indians over the last two years. However, Hernández was miserable in his stint with the White Sox to start this season. A competitive team probably wouldn’t want him as an everyday option, but that’s where the Pirates come in. He’s interesting enough to warrant an everyday role with a team looking to fill out the lineup card with a middle infield free agent and potentially flip him for a prospect midseason.
Donovan Solano – Colorado Rockies
Donnie Barrels heading to Denver would kind of be payback for when the Rockies shipped Marco Scutaro to San Francisco midway through the 2012 season. Solano is very similar to Scutaro in a lot of ways, actually – they’re not power hitters and they don’t draw a lot of walks, but they make a lot of contact and rarely strike out. Over the last three seasons with the Giants, Solano hit .308/.354/.435 (114 wRC+), flying under the radar thanks to his poor defense and low walk rate. Considering his defensive shortcomings, and the fact that his 2021 showing was the worst of his past three seasons, the Rockies should be able to pick up Solano for a song this offseason. Disappointingly for their fans, Solano would effectively be a replacement for Story, sharing middle infield duties with Brendan Rodgers and Garrett Hampson while also being a candidate for DH at-bats. Woof – the Rockies have a long way to go considering this is where we peg their middle infield free agent destiny.
Andrelton Simmons – Cincinnati Reds
The Reds look primed to trim significant payroll and watch Nick Castellanos depart this offseason, so it’s going to be a really cold winter for their fans. Simmons is the flavor of veteran addition the Reds may be looking to make this offseason, since he will probably only cost $1 or $2 million and has been a very good player in the past. Virtually all of his past value has been as a defender, of course, and his once uninspiring-but-serviceable bat cratered in his 131 games with the Twins this season, where he hit .223/.283/.274 (56 wRC+). He’s still only 32 though, so he might have one more chance left to prove he’s still got it before being relegated to minor league deals until retirement. The Reds’ infield is pretty full at the moment, but Simmons’ strong defense could allow them to move incumbent shortstop Kyle Farmer all around the diamond and continue to mess with Jose Barrero‘s development. If they see fit to trade away Mike Moustakas to shave off some more payroll, there would be even more playing time potentially open for Simmons.
Freddy Galvis – Washington Nationals
Suffice to say that 2021 was not kind to the Washington Nationals. Trea Turner is gone, Max Scherzer is gone, and Juan Soto will only have so much patience for them to get back on track. Short-term veteran additions like Galvis are exactly what teams like the Nationals, who are looking to speedily rebuild, should target. Galvis has never been even an average hitter in his ten career seasons, but he’s a switch-hitter with an excellent glove, which still has plenty of value. He was worth 1.6 WAR in just 104 games this season thanks to that great defense, which makes him a fine player to be had on a cheap deal. Galvis could find himself in a timeshare with Alcides Escobar in D.C., and potentially on a contender’s bench after the All-Star break.
-Michael Swinehart
