The Toronto Blue Jays head into this season as perhaps the most talented 4th place team in the majors. Though buried behind the monsters of the AL East (New York, Boston, and Tampa), the Blue Jays are are a good ball club. Led offensively by Jose Bautista and defensively by starter Ricky Romero, Toronto is attempting to become the cinderella story of 2012.
Projected Lineup:
- Colby Rasmus (Cf)
- Brett Lawrie (3b)
- Jose Bautista (Rf)
- Adam Lind (1b)
- Edwin Encarnacion (DH)
- Yunel Escobar (ss)
- J.P. Arencibia (C)
- Kelly Johnson (2b)
- Eric Thames (Lf)
Projected Rotation:
- Ricky Romero
- Brandon Morrow
- Brett Cecil
- Henderson Alvarez
- Dustin McGowan
Strengths:
Youth: Colby Rasmus is seen by many as a future star and the Jays got him for a steal last season after he fell out of favor with then-manager Tony La Russa. He struggled with injuries last year but is poised for a big bounce back in his first season in the pros as an undisputed starter. Likewise, third basemen Brett Lawrie who was acquired in the Shaun Marcum trade with Milwaukee last winter has the potential to be a great compliment to slugger Bautista. Also, 26 year old catcher J.P. Arencibia is entering his second full season.
Bautista: Yup, Joey Bats is a team strength. The guy is amazing. He had what can only be described as a breakout season in 2010 belting 54 long balls and finishing 4th in the MVP voting and followed it up with an even better 2011, batting .302 while still launching 43 and driving in 132. He also led the league in walks en route to a 3rd place MVP finish. If he can replicate the last two seasons again in 2012, the Jays can build a very successful offense around him.
Weaknesses:
Pitching: Romero is stud at the top of the rotation, in fact, we named him one of the five most likely to make “the leap” this season, but there isn’t much behind him. Morrow and Cecil have yet to put it all together, McGowan has yet to have a season that could be really called ‘good’, and Alvarez has exactly 10 career starts. In the bullpen, closer Sergio Santos was acquired from the White Sox providing yet more proof of the incompetence of Kenny Williams, but the rest of the ‘pen isn’t going to fare to well against the powerhouse offenses of the division.
Depth: Right now, the difference between Toronto and the top three in the East is depth of the starting squad. The Yanks, Sox, and Rays have quality big leaguers at all 9 positions, as do teams like the Rangers and Angels. The Jays, on the other hand, have Bautista and then a few guys like Lawrie and Rasmus who could be good and a few fill-ins like Lind and Thames. Until they have a solid roster all the way around, they’ll never be able to compete over a 162 game season.
Storylines:
It's not Omar Vizquel, but it's close.
Omar Vizquel: Future Hall of Famer Omar Vizquel is playing for his 6th big league team in 24 seasons this year with Toronto. He is only 159 hits from 3000 for his career. He hasn’t had more than that number since 2006 so he likely wont get it this year but how close will he come? Will he continue to dazzle with his defense? It’s always fun to watch him play.
Role in the Division: The AL East is one of the most closely watched divisions in baseball. As previously mentioned, it has perhaps baseball’s best 3 teams in it. What role will Toronto play this season? They think they can make a run at it and they might be right, this year, a third place finish might be good enough to make the playoffs. More likely, however, is that they play the role of spoiler. They play the Yankees a lot in the second half and if they are playing good baseball at that point may have a key role in determining a division winner .
What does Jose Bautista do in Toronto when he’s just chilling? There’s no way the guy likes Canada that much (though I will say it’s awesome).
Prediction:
80-82 4th place, AL East. 54 games against the Rays, Red Sox and Yankees very simply is not fair, but that’s the way the cookie crumbles for the Blue Jays. Look for them to struggle to end up at .500.
Bold Predictions:
- Colby Rasmus will bat .290 with 23 homers
- The Blue Jays will lead the majors in home runs this season
- Jose Bautista will hit .290 with 23 home runs
- Ricky Romero will finish in 9th place in the Cy Young voting
-Max Frankel
