Miguel Cabrera is a monster. He’s one of the three best hitters in the Majors currently-Pujols and Hamilton are in the conversation. But more than one player is needed to win championships (just ask LeBron in his years as a Cav). Manager Jim Leyland takes a lot of credit as a quality coach but I’ve always found him to be very strict and up-tight. He’s not a guy I would like to play for and I think it shows in his players. The Tigers never seem to have a smile on their faces and it affects their on field performance.
Projected Lineup:
- Austin Jackson (CF)
- Carlos Guillen (2B)
- Miguel Cabrera (1B)
- Victor Martinez (C)
- Magglio Ordonez (RF)
- Brandon Inge (3B)
- Alex Avila (C)
- Jhonny Peralta (SS)
- Ryan Raburn (LF)
Projected Rotation:
- Justin Verlander
- Max Scherzer
- Rick Porcello
- Phil Coke
- Brad Penny
Strengths:
K-Mart: K-Mart is a very nice store. My grandmother likes to shop there for her clothes. The Tigers have signed V-Mart though and he is equally as good. Victor Martinez gives this team great flexibility in allowing Alex Avila the starting catching job without too much pressure. Should Avila stumble out of the gate, V-Mart will slide into the catcher position and allow Leyland to hit whoever hits the best to play.
Verlander: Justin Verlander (18-9, 3.37 ERA) is one of the most fun pitchers to watch in all of the Majors. His pure stuff (98 mph fastball, powerful downward breaking curve, and devastating changeup) move ridiculous amounts when he is at top form. Verlander is capable of shutting down any lineup on any night. He ranked fourth in the American League with an 8.79 K/9 rate in 2010 and led the league in strikeouts with 269 in 2009. The guy is a true ace.
Late Innings: With the signing of Joaquin Benoit to go with Jose Valverde, and flame thrower Joel Zumaya, the late innings for the Tigers seem to be under control. Benoit (.147 BAA) was one of the top set up men in all of baseball a year ago and Valverde saved 26 of 29 in his first year with the Tigers. A question for these guys is health. Benoit sat out all of 2009 after elbow surgery, and Zumaya has battled through an array of injuries since his 2006 rookie year. Zumaya has recently been advised to not throw for two weeks, eliminating the possibility he is ready for Opening Day 2011.
Weaknesses:
Drinking: Miguel Cabrera’s drinking issues will be more fully addressed in the Storylines section below but his escapades surely cause a distraction to his team. Any time the team’s best player causes a distraction, the team moves closer to the edge of falling off the map. A situation like this can rip a team apart and make them fall short of expectations.
Age: Magglio Ordonez is not getting any younger in right and although he is still an effective ML right fielder, some have to wonder for how long? Couple that question with Carlos Guillen is 36 and has failed to reach 500 ABs since 2007, there’s health concerns with the Tigers. On top of the old guys, there’s some young guys that are really expected to produce. Austin Jackson (24) hit .297 with 27 steals last year but, his BABIP (.398) indicates his numbers may fall. Alex Avila (24) has been crowned the Opening Day starter despite his 355 Major League ABs and career .237 BA. Ryan Rayburn has never been an Opening Day starter but has shown some promise in recent years and may be a sleeper guy to watch this year.
Storylines:
Drinking: For a full look at drinking in baseball look at my post “Baseball Has a Problem.” That post looks at how beer is a staple in America’s past time and how we may need to change that. Now, I’d like to look specifically at how Miguel Cabrera’s situation affects the Tigers. Continually uglier reports continue to surface about the DUI stop. Initially, it was reported that Cabrera took a swig of scotch in front of a deputy. Apparently, Cabrera also told the deputy to “Kill me, just (explitive) kill me.” This hours after walking into a Florida Bar-b-que joint and telling the patrons “You don’t know me. I will kill you. I know all of you, and I will kill all of you and blow this place up.” The details of his pre-Spring escapades are quite ugly. If these reports are all accurate (and true) then Cabrera could be facing major charges that could derail his 2011 MVP bid. You have to question his desire, and motivation to play given this incident. An unmotivated Miguel Cabrera is still a very good Major League first baseman but for the Tigers to have a shot at the AL Central crown, he may have to be superhuman.
Porcello: Rick Porcello ws supposed to be the next great pitcher coming out of high school in New Jersey. Porcello was a flame thrower, reportedly hitting 100 in high school games regularly. Now, he lives aroun 91-92 and has yet to be spectacular. His 2010 was extremely unimpressive. Rick had a 4.92 ERA with a 1.39 WHIP and lost 12 games. Can Porcello capture the magic that made many think he would be one of the games top pitchers or is he destined to become another of these 4.00-5.00 ERA starters who log 200 innings (effective and necessary parts of every team but yawn….).
Prediction:
84-78, 3rd Place, Al Central. The Tigers have the talent and drive to be an above average team in the AL but, they are a few pieces short of a very good team and I don’t see this as their year. Should a starter emerge or a big trade fortify the back end of the rotation, this team could be a lot better. I look for them to stay in the hunt long enough but tail off come August/September. Poor Tigers will continue to frown all year. (I’m serious: Leyland is so mad all the time, he makes these guys frown)
Bold Predictions:
- Ryan Rayburn has a big 2011, he hits .298 with 23 HR and 89 RBIs. Not too bold but when remembering none of you know who Ryan Rayburn is, those are some big numbers.
- Rick Porcello throws a perfect game. Armondo Galarraga gets pissed and finally sounds off on how mad he is that Jim Joyce missed the call. Galarraga suprised everyone by sounding off in perfect French.
- Rick Porcello has a repeat 2010. Over 4.5 ERA with a few strikeouts and 180 IP…. totally pedestrian numbers.
- Miguel Cabrera misses more than 8 weeks with court/ substance abuse problems.
The Something Different Category:
Suprised you there with the title of the category…. but not many links today.
Just this one. Long Snapper trick shots!
As always offthebench@offthebenchbaseball.com
-Sean Morash
