Last year, Ryan Braun won the National League MVP Award. He had quite a season, posting a slash of .332/.397/.597 with 33 homers, 33 steals, and a league-leading .994 OPS. Then he tested positive for elevated testosterone levels. Then he didn’t. Though outraged, Braun held his tongue for the duration of the appeal process, eventually becoming the first player ever to successfully overturn a positive test and 50 game suspension.
When it was finally over, Braun got in front of the camera and talked about his feelings, his relief, his pride, etc. But what he really wanted to say was, “just wait til next year.” And here we are.
Braun’s 2012 slash line currently sits at .308/.384/.602. He leads the NL in slugging percentage, home runs (34), RBI (85), and total bases (268). More impressive though–and of more importance to the PED debate–is the consistency that Braun has shown throughout his first six seasons. While his numbers don’t show the mechanical repetition of Albert Pujols, of recent major leaguers, Braun’s level of reliable production to begin a career is fairly unprecedented. He’s hit within 10 points of his career clip of .311 three times, he’s been within 10 RBI of his yearly average of 106 every year (his rookie year was the only season he failed to drive in 100 runs, with 97 in 113 games), and in only one season was his home run total more than two off of his yearly average (35).
To be blunt, that kind of consistency is not something you see in PED users.
Usually, those stat lines look more like these:
2005-2010: .267./.328/.379, 106 H, 7 HR, 45 RBI
2011-2012: .322/.360/.489, 180 H, 14 HR, 74 RBI
If you guessed that those lines belonged to Melky Cabrera, you’d be right. As great as it was to watch Melky “make it,” the reality is that he fits the classic PED-user bill: struggling guy with some talent who couldn’t seem to put it together. Bartolo Colon’s story is a bit different, but along the same lines: former stud, battling obsolescence, wanted a taste of the glory days. Cabrera and Colon are are guys for whom the lure of the “edge” was too much.
Ryan Braun fits another bill entirely: Rookie of the Year, perennial All-Star, Silver Slugger, and MVP contender. Braun isn’t a guy who was looking for an “edge,” for that last little bit, that final push. He’s a guy who has been raking for six years running, and raking in remarkably steady fashion. As we’ve said, the MLB drug testing system is not perfect, but it’s damn hard to beat. And nearly impossible to evade for six years.
Look at the numbers, look at the comparisons, look at the facts. Ryan Braun wasn’t taking PEDs when he won the ROY with 37 home runs in 113 games. He wasn’t taking them when he lead the league in hits two years later, or slugging percentage a year after that. He wasn’t taking them when he won five straight Silver Sluggers and started five straight All-Star Games. And he wasn’t taking them when he won the MVP last year.
-Ari Glantz
Stat of the Day: Bartolo Colon’s ‘apology’ was just two sentences, and 32 words long.
