As I’m sure you’ve heard by now, Carlos Quentin of the San Diego Padres charged the mound last night, inciting a bench clearing brawl after being hit on the shoulder by a 3-2 pitch from Dodgers’ starter Zach Greinke. While that in and of itself is noteworthy–made more so after Quentin and Dodger star Matt Kemp got into it in the parking lot after the game and had to be separated by police–the real story from last night is that Greinke broke his collar bone in the altercation. As far as I can tell from the video, the injury had to occur when Greinke lowered his shoulder into the oncoming Quentin as the start of the fight.
In any event, this is a huge deal. Greinke was the prize of last year’s free agent class and was supposed to be one of the difference makers for LA this season. While it is his non-throwing shoulder that he hurt, Greinke, an Ace on just about any team without Clayton Kershaw, will undoubtedly be out for at least the customary “four to six weeks.” Even though it’s only April, this is potentially devastating for the Dodgers and could have major implications for the rest of the NL.
According to our predictions, as well as those of many other pundits, the Dodgers are likely to be battling it out in the NL West with the Giants all summer. The Giants, winners of two of the last three World Series, have tremendous starting pitching and are one of the teams to beat in the senior circuit (the Nationals, Reds and maybe Dodgers being the other contenders).
For LA, there is a ton of pressure after their opulent offseason and commensurately star studded roster. Greinke, the crown jewel of the new acquisitions, is supposed to be the piece that puts them over the top, giving them a second Ace and a downright terrifying playoff rotation.
No matter which way it ends up, the division is likely to be really close. Both the Giants and Dodgers are upper echelon teams. With the new emphasis on winning divisions and avoiding the Wild Card play-in games (see Atlanta Braves, 2012), it’ll surly be a fight to the end for the NL West crown. Neither team can afford to give away winnable games in April. If Greinke is out for a month or more, the Dodgers will have to go to a guy like Ted Lilly, who, while a passable starter on a few teams, is no Zach Greinke. The Dodgers will undoubtedly be a worse team without one of the game’s best pitchers.
Ok, so I’ve laid out how Greinke’s injury affects the NL West but how about the whole league? Well, the aforementioned Giants starting pitching is a huge playoff weapon. In fact, last season, it arguably won them the crown. If the Giants are out of the playoffs, it’s a huge advantage for everyone in the playoffs. The best chance for keeping the Giants out is for the Dodgers to play well this season. That becomes much more difficult without Greinke.
Basically, in a division that will likely be decided by only a handful of games, every win matters– be it in April or September. Thanks to Carlos Quentin’s temper, the Dodgers will be without their second best pitcher for at least a few weeks. This could cost them games now which ultimately gives the defending champion Giants a cushion to get back into the playoffs.
All this because of an errant, 3-2 fastball on April 11th.
-Max Frankel
