Some teams start off hot, some start slow. Some teams come out slugging but fade into last place clubs, while others stumble out of the gate but eventually wind up on top. It’s nearly May, and while there is undeniably a long way to go, we’re starting to get a feel for who really is good and who really is bad. Needless to say, there are some surprises. Here are three teams who started a little differently than we’d expected, but seem very likely to continue on their deviant paths.
Toronto Blue Jays:
The Blue Jays were projected to contend for the AL East crown, instead they are in its basement at 9-17. They’ve been riddled with injuries and under-performance, but they show no signs of snapping out of their funk anytime soon. They just got swept by the Yankees in the Bronx, RA Dickey is getting an MRI on his back today (and recently became one of only a handful of CY Young award winners to loose four games in April the year after they won the award), and Jose Reyes is still out until the All-Star break.
There are some things will normalize over time, but are still indicative of serious problems. Exhibit A: Melky Cabrera leads the team in batting average–with a .250 mark. That’s horrendous. Eventually someone will do better than 1-4 every day, but the fact that no one yet has is cause for serious concern. JP Arencibia leads the team in homers with eight. Not Jose Bautista, not Edwin Encarnacion (though I could have told you that was going to happen), JP Arencibia. Further, JA Happ is the team’s best pitcher, better in ERA and wins that Dickey, Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle, or Brandon Morrow. That kind of collective under-performance is startling but, as we saw on last year’s Boston Red Sox, when it starts to snowball it can be sustained through an entire season. Speaking of which…..
Boston Red Sox:
After last year’s disaster and some less than critically acclaimed winter moves, the Red Sox were the trendy pick for last in the AL East. As it sits now, they lead the division with an 18-7 record. Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz have regained their form under manager/old pitching coach John Farrell, and together they sit at 9-0 with a sub-2.00 ERA. Even John Lackey looks good. Jacoby Ellsbury is stealing bases, Dustin Pedroia is hitting .330, and new addition Mike Napoli is proving the naysayers wrong with more RBIs than games played.
Like Toronto, things in Boston will sort themselves out when we get out of Small Sample Size territory–it would be quite a shock if Buchholz finished the year with a 1.19 ERA. However, if the new culture in Boston is anything as strong as the old culture was, trends can be maintained. Last year it was a downward spiral, this year it’s Boston Strong. Daniel Nava isn’t going to keep hitting .310, but Will Middlebrooks won’t hit .202 either. With David Ortiz back in the lineup, the Sox can keep winning games all summer behind their good starting pitching.
Texas Rangers:
The Rangers were supposed to have a down year in 2013 with the loss of Josh Hamilton to division rival LAA, and with Oakland’s new found success. Instead, the Rangers are 16-9 and look poised to pull away from the pack. Yu Darvish has been lights out this season and OTB projected him as a potential Cy Young winner. Meanwhile, Lance Berkman and Ian Kinsler are going a long way to pick up the slack in Hamilton’s stead. The Rangers are winning games without the longball a little bit more, but they still have the power to bash with the best of them come the summer in Arlington. Moreover, they are currently winning games while their most potent offensive weapon, Adrian Beltre, is batting only .221. Once he gets going, watch out.
-Max Frankel
