Because I’m a bit of a masochist, I was listening to ESPN’s Colin Cowherd in the car this morning. Cowherd is the bottom of the commercial barrel when it comes to sports talk radio. Generally, local sports radio is better than nationally syndicated stuff but even among the national shows, The Herd is one of the worst. Thing is, Cowherd is excellent at his job. I’m not accusing him of not being good at what he does, it’s just sad that his job consists so much more of empty banter, overly excited declarations, sensationalizing nonsense, and hype and hyperbole, than actual sports reporting or analysis. The frustrating thing about Colin Cowherd is that it is clear that he really knows no more than you or I do, that he’s basically just the loudest jerk at Buffalo Wild Wings, and that his most impressive skill is leveraging his power as ‘radio host’ to talk down to people and dismiss valid opinions simply because they aren’t his own. He is the quintessential air-time filler who unfortunately has a mid-day time slot.
But! This post isn’t about Colin Cowherd or the sorry state of sports radio (Fox Sports is almost worse actually). I could devote an entire post to that (and I might), but I’ve done too much research for this particular entry not to write it. This post is about something in particular that Cowherd said this morning on the radio. When talking with Eric Karros about the current playoff contenders in baseball, Cowherd dismissed the World Series chances of the Pirates, Red Sox and Braves and called a Tigers-Dodgers October matchup, Fait-Accompli, precisely because the former teams lack the “Ace” that the latter teams apparently have.
Actually, part of his point point is difficult to argue. Both the Tigers and the Dodgers have a collection of the some of the best pitchers in the game. It is clear that Clayton Kershaw is better than any other supposed Ace in the NL and that Justin Verlander/Max Scherzer is better than anything the Red Sox or A’s or Rangers can offer in the first game of a series (maybe not the Rays, however). The issue I have is with Cowherd’s assertion that come October the most important component of a team–the piece that most determines playoff success–is the Ace starting pitcher. Does having Kershaw, the game’s best, guarantee a World Series trip for the Dodgers?
There is little doubt that teams built for playoff success can be different than those built for regular season success (another of Colin’s assertions) but is the presence of an Ace a prerequisite for October glory? And is the lack of an Ace doom an otherwise stellar team to postseason defeat?
Cowherd seems to distinguish between Aces and just very good pitchers, as evidenced in his distinction between the Dodgers and Tigers and the Braves, Red Sox and Pirates. The Braves, Red Sox, and Pirates are all very good teams and as such have very good pitching. Pittsburgh’s Liriano will get Cy Young votes and the rest of the rotation has pitched very well, top to bottom the Braves have one of the deepest starting rotations rotations in baseball, and the Red Sox have a strong set of veteran starters who are all pitching relatively well, as well as a stud starter on the DL at the moment (Clay Buchholz). Apparently, however, Cowherd thinks that none of that matters because those teams do not have a real and true Ace. But does history back Cowherd up in this claim?
Here’s a look at the top pitcher (determined by me) on a few of the last World Series participants. The pitchers ERA follows his name and his finish in the Cy Young voting is in parenthesis.
| Year | Winner | Loser |
| 2012 | Giants: Matt Cain, 2.79 (6) | Tigers: Justin Verlander, 2.64 (2) |
| 2011 | Cardinals: Chris Carpenter, 3.45 (N/A) | Rangers: CJ Wilson, 2.94 (6) |
| 2010 | Giants: Cain, 3.14 (12) | Rangers: Wilson, 3.35 (N/A) |
| 2009 | Yankees: CC Sabathia, 3.37 (4) | Phillies: Cole Hamels, 4.32 (N/A) |
| 2008 | Phillies: Hamels, 3.09 (N/A) | Rays: James Shields, 3.56 (N/A) |
Now, obviously teams that make the playoffs, let alone the World Series, have some of the best pitching in the league. Each and every one of these pitchers is (or was) one of the best in baseball. But they are not necessarily Aces, at least not in the sense that Cowherd uses the term. In fact, since 2008, not a single Cy Young award winner has made the World Series. This seems to be a bad omen for the Dodgers and Tigers (and Cowherd’s prediction) because both those teams have the presumptive favorites for the award this season (Kershaw and Scherzer).
Further, while all these pitchers are good, the best pitchers on the last 10 World Series teams, the team’s Aces are usually not among that year’s elite in their league. Of the 10, only 2 were considered to be in the top 5 in their respective leagues that season and 5 weren’t even considered for the Cy Young award. This seems to be important information because while each team in baseball has an Ace (presumably the Red Sox, Braves, and Pirates do) some Aces trump, in Cowherd’s analysis, and the Cy Young voting should be a good measure of where a particular team’s Ace is ranked relative to other Aces.
Cowherd seems to think that the quality of a team’s best starting pitcher is the best predictor of postseason success. He happens to think that this correlation is incredibly strong and that the chances of every other NL playoff team is virtually nil because Clayton Kershaw of the Dodgers is better than the best pitcher any of them have. History doesn’t agree. Sure, Kershaw is the best pitcher in the NL but there are other factors at play in postseason success. In fact, the fact that no Cy Young award winner (the Ace of the Aces, if you will) has made the World Series in the last 5 seasons should lead to the conclusion that there are a variety of factors that contribute to playoff wins and losses (for instance: full rotation quality, bullpen quality, lineup depth, defense, middle of’ the order, leadoff hitting, on base percentage, extra base hitting, base running, weather, luck, baseball, sports…) and that quality of the top starting pitcher is but one of many.
The Tigers and Dodgers might both make it to the World Series. They both have incredible starting pitching depth and potent offenses. But to discount the playoff chances of every other team simply because their number 1 starter isn’t as good is naive, historically unsupported, and wrong.
“Pitching” wins championships, not “pitcher.”
-Max Frankel
