A friend of Off The Bench drops some serious San Francisco 49ers knowledge on us just hours before the NFL draft. Kiriakedes nailed three of the ‘Niners picks a year ago and looks to improve on that performance as he walks us through the outlook for the San Francisco football team over the next few days. For a look at last year’s post, go here.
Enjoy…
Overview: The Niner’s have some holes to fill and are always looking to add talent and competition. This alone makes them a tough read come draft time. General Manager Trent Baalke is of the mindset that you need to stockpile talent before you have to address need. Of course, if need and the best player available come together, that is best case scenario. A deep draft class at wide receiver and cornerback should allow the Niners to accomplish both in the early rounds. With 11 picks, 5 of which are in the top 100, I expect the Niners to move up and down the draft board to grab players they covet, while likely adding additional picks in next year’s draft.
Key Losses: Tarell Brown (CB), Carlos Rogers (CB), Donte Whitner (S)
After another run to the NFC Championship Game the 49ers decided they could move forward without 3 of their 4 starting defensive backs. All three will be missed. Both Brown and Rogers were solid veterans who knew the 49ers scheme and fit well with what they did as a defense. Of the two, the loss of Brown will hurt the most. He is the younger of the two and had proven to be a legitimate starting NFL cornerback. One of the factors that helped play a role in their decision to cut Rogers and let Brown walk was the emergence of Tramaine Brock. Brock, along with the higher price they would have had to pay to keep them, ultimately led to their departures.
A similar situation applies to Whitner, as the leader of the defensive backfield has moved on to Cleveland. A Pro Bowl caliber safety is hard to replace, but with contract extensions due for Colin Kaepernick, Michael Crabtree, Mike Iupati, and possibly Aldon Smith, this seemed like an inevitable move following their NFC Championship loss.
Key Additions: Antoine Bethea (S), Brandon Lloyd (WR), Chris Cook (CB), Jonathan Martin (OL), Blaine Gabbert
The Niners hole opposite budding star Eric Reid was immediately filled by the signing of Antoine Bethea. Bethea is of a similar mold to Whitner, a big hitter who excels in the box for run support. I do believe that he will be a slight upgrade over Whitner in coverage, but more importantly, it places another veteran safety in the defensive backfield who will continue to help Reid as he matures as a player.
The addition of Chris Cook also can’t be overlooked. He is a big, physical corner who has the talent to be a solid starter, and it seems like he is a great fit for the style of play the Niners like from their corners. Under the tutelage of Ed Donatell and Vic Fangio, the Niners are hoping to strike gold much like they did with their acquisition of Carlos Rogers.
Brandon Lloyd will add depth at the WR position and challenge Quinton Patton and a rookie receiver for the 3rd wide receiver spot.
The Jonathan Martin acquisition is a low risk, high reward move that seems to define the Niners off-season moves as of late. He is a talented Offensive Lineman who should provide flexibility and depth along the O-Line.
The same can be said about Gabbert. A former top ten pick, who was thrust into a less than ideal situation in Jacksonville, is a low risk move that will provide a better backup option than Colt McCoy did last year.
Injuries: Navorro Bowman (ILB)
The loss of Bowman will certainly hurt. You could make a solid argument that he is the best inside linebacker in football. Fortunately for the Niners, they also have the other best inside linebacker in the NFL on their roster in Patrick Willis. Also not to be overlooked is Michael Whilhoite, who did a fantastic job filling in for the injured Willis last year. Along with Nick Moody, and a potential draft pick, the Niners will more than be able to hold down the fort at the middle linebacker position.
Question Marks: Aldon Smith (OLB), Chris Culliver (CB), Tank Carradine (DL), Ian Williams (DL)
Will Aldon Smith be suspended? Most likely. The young sack master will be missed for sure. He provides an element off the edge that few can, but Corey Lemonier and Dan Skuta filled in with great results last year during Smith’s leave of absence. If Lemonier can take a step forward, he could provide some much need pass rush off the edge. Skuta should be able to handle 1st and 2nd down, and he will once again be a key contributor on special teams.
Culliver is not only coming off ACL surgery, but he recently had a brush with the law that leaves his status up in the air at the moment. Before his injury he was blossoming into one of the better young cornerbacks in the game, but if he can return to form, he will add much needed talent at the cornerback position.
Tank Carradine, who many considered a top 5 talent in last year’s draft, fell to the Niners in the second round due to an ACL injury. By all accounts, he is healthy and will be a full go for the Niner’s this season, where he will be a true wild card. He should/could be the heir apparent to Justin Smith, but could also provide a rush off the edge in their nickel package when they bump The Cowboy inside.
Ian Williams had all but secured the nose tackle position before he was lost for the season in Week 2 last year versus the Seahawks. He should return to full strength, and having a deep rotation of him, Glenn Dorsey, Tony Jerrod-Eddie, and Demarcus Dobbs should be able to provide quality snaps in the middle of the defensive line.
Draft Needs: WR, CB, S, OLB, RB, QB, ILB, C
The Niners have a deep and talented roster, but they do have a few areas of need that could use an injection of young talent. On paper the Niners look deeper and more talented at WR than they have in years, but with Boldin getting older and Crabtree a free-agent after the season, they need to add a potential starter to the mix. I expect them to accomplish this early in the draft and would not be surprised if they added two WR in this draft.
The cornerback position on the current roster is young and somewhat unproven, and it could be bolstered with competition and more talented players. Due to that, the Niners are likely to add at least one cornerback to the mix via the draft.
With Justin Smith reaching the end of his career and Ray McDonald under contract for two more seasons, defensive end could be a position the Niners choose to address in this draft class. Due to the Aldon Smith situation, there could potentially be a need for an edge rusher at the outside linebacker position. A team can never have enough pass rushers, and I expect them to pick a high-upside outside linebacker at some point in this draft.
After the signing of Bethea it would seem that the Niners would be set at safety, but competition is something the Niners believe in. If they find themselves in a position where the best player on the board is a safety, they may jump at the chance to add talent to the defensive backfield, knowing that in a worst case scenario, they would have an immediate special teams contributor that they could groom to replace Bethea in the near future.
With Frank Gore and Kendall Hunter due to be free agents after the season, the once loaded Niner backfield could be depleted quickly. If Marcus Lattimore can make a Frank Gore-like recovery, the Niners would still need a reliable back-up moving forward. A mid to late round addition seems like a possibility.
The Niners picked up Blaine Gabbert to back up Kaepernick this year, but once again competition is a core value of the Niner organization. If the right signal caller is available in the middle rounds, they could very well bring someone in to challenge Gabbert for the backup job.
With the loss of Bowman, the inside linebacker position got thinner. Adding a versatile linebacker to the mix would provide some depth both on defense and special teams.
It seems as if the Niners have handed the starting center job over to Dan Kilgore, but I expect them to draft a center in the class to challenge him in camp, and at worst, provide depth in the interior line.
Draft Picks:
1st Round 30th
2nd Round 24th (56th overall)
2nd Round 29th (61st overall)
3rd Round 13th (77th overall)
3rd Round 30th (94th overall)
3rd Round 36th (100th overall)
4th Round 29th (129th overall)
5th Round 30th (170th overall)
7th Round 27th (242nd overall)
7th Round 28th (243rd overall)
7th Round 30th (345th overall)
[button color=”red” link=””]1st Round[/button]
I expect the Niners to trade up into the teens in order to acquire a wide receiver or cornerback. An ideal trade partner would be the Ravens at 17. This would likely cost the Niners their pick at #30 and also one of their two second round picks, likely the 56th overall pick.
The Pick: Odell Beckham Jr. (WR, LSU) – Beckham would provide the depth threat the receiver position that the Niners currently lack and would also provide much need improvement in the return game. An explosive athlete who has played against the best competition in college football, he would immediately challenge for the third receiver spot and would provide the Niners with flexibility to move Boldin into the slot where he excels. The Niners have not had any luck selecting receivers as of late, see A.J Jenkins, but Beckham should break that trend and be an immediate contributor and could be the wide receiver of the future if the Niners are unable to resign Crabtree after the season.
Alternate Pick #1: Justin Gilbert (CB, Oklahoma State) – Gilbert is a freakish athlete with all the measurable to be a lock down corner. He is raw in technique but shows great ball skills and the ability to make the big play. He is also a factor in the return game and would be an immediate upgrade. Under the tutelage of Ed Donatell, Gilbert has the makings of a Pro-Bowl corner.
Alternate Pick #2: Branding Cooks (WR, Oregon State) – A smaller, true slot receiver who can take the top off the defense, Cooks would provide the big play ability from the receiver position that the Niners lack. He would also contribute in the return game much like Beckham and Gilbert. The reason I have him below Beckham is that Cooks may very well be limited to the slot position, while Beckham can bump outside.
If the Niners do not trade up in the 1st round they could have their pick of many quality prospects at #30.
The Pick: Cody Latimer (WR, Indiana) – A height, weight, speed prospect who has shown reliable hands, Latimer has jumped on the scene as of late. If the Niners stick at #30 he should be available and would be able learn from Crabtree and Boldin, while providing Kaepernick with another threat on the outside. Not the explosive deep threat that Beckham is, he could still develop into a high quality receiver.
Alternate Pick #1 –Allen Robinson (WR, PSU)– Robinson is a physical , fluid athlete with room to grow. He is dangerous after the catch and has shown big play ability after the catch. He may not be the over top threat that the Niners are looking for, but he has been a productive and has shown the ability to get in the endzone.
Alternate Picks #2 – Jason Verrett (CB, TCU) – A smaller corner, with great movement skills, particularly in small spaces, Verrett could immediately challenge for time as the nickel back. With the likes of Percy Harvin in the division a strong nickel back is vital, not to mention that the Niners spend a lot of time in their nickel defense.
[button color=”red” link=””]2nd Round[/button]
If they don’t trade up and keep the 56th pick…
The Pick: Pierre Desir (CB, Lindenwood) – A tall, long armed cornerback with great ball skills is the type of the player the Niners could use. He has long arms and good movement skills (plug in the Richard Sherman comparisons here).While he may not be Sherman, Desir ceiling is very high and would much needed talent to the defensive backfield.
Alternate Pick #1 Stanley Jean-Baptiste (CB, Nebraska) – Another long and athletic corner much like Desir. The former wide receiver has great ball skills and the length to be a physical press corner.
Alternate Pick #2 Davonte Adams (WR, Fresno State) – Adams had an extremely productive college career and has drawn comparisons to Michael Crabtree. A good route runner, with great hands, Adams could prove to be one of the most productive receivers of this draft class.
Pick #61
The Pick (if they still have #56): Jeremiah Attaochu (OLB, Georgia Tech) – An explosive edge rusher with a high ceiling, he would add depth at outside linebacker and would also soften the blow if/when Aldon Smith is suspended.
The Pick (if they trade #56): Stanley Jean-Baptiste (CB, Nebraska) – Another long and athletic corner much like Desir. The former wide receiver has great ball skills and the length to be a physical press corner.
Alternate Pick #1: Keith McGill (CB, Utah) – A long and physical corner with upside.
Alternate Pick #2: Lamarcus Joyner (DB, Florida State) – Joyner is a smaller defensive back who plays with his hair on fire and plays much bigger than his size. He fits best in the nickel role because of his size and movement skills. He also has experience at safety and would provide some flexibility which is valued in the Niners defensive scheme.
[button color=”red” link=””]3rd Round[/button]
Pick #77
The Pick: Weston Richburg (C, Colorado State) – An experienced anchor who should challenge and possibly over take Kilgore at the center position.
Alternate Pick #1 :Trent Murphy (DE/OLB, Stanford)- Murphy is a proven pass-rusher, with a great motor. If they have already addressed wide receiver and cornerback he could very well be the pick in this slot.
Alternate Pick #2: Lamarcus Joyner (DB, Florida State)
Pick #94
The Pick: Craig Loston (S, LSU) – A physical and hard hitting strong safety who can learn for a year or two and play special teams and eventually could slid in next to his former teammate Eric Reid.
Alternate Pick#1: Ahmad Dixon (S, Baylor)
Alternate Pick #2 :Aaron Colvin (CB, Oklahoma) – Similar to the move they pulled with Tank Carradine, the Niners could stash Colvin for a year. If not for a knee injury he would have likely been a 1st rounder. The question is, does he even fall this far.
Pick #100
The Pick : Josh Mauro (DE, Stanford)- A great value pick and scheme fit, Mauro would challenge to get in the rotation from day one. He would provide depth and the ability to spell both Justin Smith and Ray McDonald.
Alternate Pick #1: E.J Gaines (CB, Missouri)- A depth pick who’s skill set could allow him to develop into a solid regular.
Alternate Pick #2: Dion Bailey (FS, USC)
[button color=”red” link=””]4th Round[/button]
Pick #129
The Pick: Lache Seastrunk (RB, Baylor)
Alternate Pick #1: Logan Thomas (QB, Virginia Tech)
Alternate Pick #2: Loucheiz Purifoy (CB, Florida)
[button color=”red” link=””]5th Round[/button]
Pick #170
The Pick: Shayne Skov (ILB, Stanford) – A rugged, tough middle linebacker with a track record is a great fit for a team that could use some depth at the position.
Alternate Pick #1: Adrian Hubbard (OLB, Alabama)
[button color=”red” link=””]6th Round[/button]
During the course of moving up and down the draft board I think the Niners acquire a pick in the 6th round and select…
The Pick: David Fales (QB, San Jose State)
[button color=”red” link=””]7th Round[/button]
Pick # 242
The Pick: A.C. Leonard (TE, Tennessee State): The former SEC tight end hand has a great tool set and could be put on the back burner until those tools become production.
Pick # 243
The Pick: Jon Halapio (G, Florida) – A big bodied, road grader that could be developed.
Pick # 345
The Pick: Anthony Fera (K, Texas)- More of a training camp addition to give Phil Dawson’s aging leg some rest.
Well there you have it. My best guess as to what the Niners will do in this year’s draft. I don’t anticipate it to be as successful as it was last year, but we will see what happens. They have a lot of ammunition in the draft and could go in many different directions, especially in the middle rounds. I expect them to take the best player available for much of the draft and also look to move up and down in the middle rounds to target specific guys, while adding some additional picks for next year.
Go Niners!
-Andrew Kiriakedes
