Around this time last season, things got pretty depressing as exciting, young, and really good MLB players started dropping like flies, all destined for the surgeon’s table thanks to torn UCLs. Baseball was talking about this rash of injuries and we were debating whether we’d finally reached the limits of a human’s ability to throw a ball.
A year later, we essentially know nothing new. Big names, like the Mets’ Zach Wheeler, the Red Sox Christian Vazquez, the Dodgers’ Brandon McCarthy, the Rangers’ Yu Darvish, are still suffering the same injury and thereby hurting their teams, but it seems like last year’s tsunami of TJs was more of a statistical anomaly than the start of a permanent new era of injuries. The upshot of that, if there is one, is that now, slightly more than a year later, there’s a wave of players returning to major league action.
Ivan Nova, Matt Weiters, Bobby Parnell, Matt Moore, Jose Fernandez, Kris Medlen, Patrick Corbin, and Josh Johnson are all on their way back to their big league clubs. For some, like Corbin, a return to the pros means maybe slightly fewer Dbacks losses. But for others, their return could be vital to their teams’ playoff chances. Let’s look at the TJ returners whose impact on the stretch run this summer might be the greatest.
Ivan Nova, New York Yankees– The Yankees have a slim lead in a hideously mediocre AL East and adding one more consistent, decent starter could go a long way towards helping the Yankees be the least worst. When he returns, Nova will join a top heavy and unpredictable starting rotation. Masahiro Tanaka has returned to the Yankees with a bang, pitching great against Seattle in his first start back from his own DL stint, but CC Sabathia has been inconsistent all year, Nate Eovaldi leads the world in hits allowed, and Chris Capuano has been so bad that the Yanks just demoted him and his $5 million salary to the bullpen. If Nova can stabilize the middle of the rotation behind Tanaka and Michael Pineda, it might give the Yankees enough depth so squeak this out in time to get throttled by Kansas City in the playoffs.
Matt Moore, Tampa Bay Rays- Nobody talks about Matt Moore enough. He’s a lefty who sits 96 with a nasty change and nasty curve. At least he was before he got hurt. Moore is on his way back for Tampa, who trails the Yankees in the AL Meh in large part because they’ve lost a shocking number of starters to injury. Drew Smyly and Alex Cobb were supposed to be rotation mainstays but both are on the DL and Chris Archer is really good but he needs some help. Moore could lengthen the Rays rotation considerably and be a huge factor this summer. Given the Rays semi-relevance in the playoff race and Moore’s potential to be absolutely dominant, he’s definitely the biggest of the Tommy John x-factors.
Matt Weiters, Baltimore Orioles- Let’s stay in the AL East, why don’t we. Weiters isn’t a pitcher, in fact, he’s a catcher and the most important part of his return could be his bat. The O’s are a few games under .500 and drifting towards last place and getting their catcher back in the middle of the order could be just the shot in the arm they need. Weiters is a 3 time All Star and hit very well in limited time last year. He really struggled this spring and he’ll need to be good to justify his starting slot in front of a capable Caleb Joseph.
Kris Medlen, Kansas City Royals- The Royals are in a dogfight in the AL Central. As opposed to the East where no one seems to want it, at least 3 teams in the Central are all capable of running away with things. The Royals have been at or near the top of the standings all season despite some disastrous starts from Jeremy Guthrie and Jason Vargas. While Kris Medlen might not be the sexiest name out there, he’s no Jose Fernandez, Medlen has been really, really good every time he’s pitched. In 2012, he managed a sub 2 ERA and a sub 1 WHIP in 50 games (12 starts), a year he got MVP votes, and posted a 3.11 ERA over 31 starts in 2013, the last time he pitched. If Medlen, who has only pitched for the Braves, can come back mid-summer as a reliable back end starter and steal innings from Guthrie, the Royals would be a lot better for it. If he can amass a 2 WAR in 13 starts or so, it might be just the 2 games KC needs to win the division.
-Max Frankel
