Early Saturday morning (or late Friday night depending on where you live) the Boston Red Sox acquired closer Brad Ziegler from the Arizona Diamondbacks. Ziegler, while certainly a very good addition, was not necessarily the name I expected when I heard the Sox dealt for a bullpen arm. (Back in June, I explored the team’s likely relief pitching trade targets.) Nonetheless, here he is, and even the casual observer can tell you: one Ziegler does not a season’s fortune make.
With two fifths of a rotation comprised of Clay Bucholz and Eduardo Rodriguez, Red Sox Czar of Baseball Operations Dave Dombrowski’s focus must now shift to the starting pitching market. In this follow up to my previous article, I will explore some of his potential targets.
The Top Tier:
Jose Fernandez, 23, RHP, MIA
2016 Stats: 17 GS, 11-4, 107.1 IP, 154 SO, 4.97 K/BB, 2.52 ERA, 1.02 WHIP
Contract: $2.8m (2016), Arb2 (2017), Arb3 (2018)
If the Red Sox are willing to trade four or five players from the list of Xander Bogaerts, Mookie Betts, Eduardo Rodriguez, Andrew Benintendi, Yoan Moncada, Rafael Devers, and Anderson Espinoza, then MAYBE they could have some serious talks with the Marlins about Fernandez. Otherwise, Sox fans would be wise to temper expectations. Some people may think that Miami’s asking price is far beyond what is considered fair, but the Marlins are in a playoff race of their own and rightfully have little motivation to move a 23-year old ace who is already considered a top 5 pitcher in the MLB. Going into the All-Star break with a 2.43 ERA, 2.42 FIP, and 11.13 K/9 rate through his first 400 career innings further supports the notion that Miami will be holding on to their perennial Cy-Young candidate. It’s not what fans want to hear, but Jose Fernandez will not be wearing a new uniform any time soon.
Sonny Gray, RHP, 26, OAK
2016 Stats: 16 GS, 3-8, 90.2 IP, 70 SO, 2.12 K/BB, 5.16 ERA, 1.47 WHIP
Contract: $527.5K (2016), Arb1 (2017), Arb2 (2018), Arb3 (2019)
The case could be made that Fernandez belongs on a list to himself, and that Sonny Gray belongs in the next tier; however, with three more seasons of team control beyond 2016 and a track record of performing like a number two starter on a playoff team, I bumped him up. (Sue me.) The parent club’s position on Gray also likely mirrors Fernandez’s despite a rough start to the season: Oakland would surely be looking for a good haul in return for their young ace. Don’t expect Billy Beane to sell-low on such a valuable starting pitching commodity. Gray still owns a career 3.23 ERA and 3.54 FIP, so perhaps a package including Eduardo Rodriguez and one of Benintendi or Moncada could get the A’s talking, but I find it extremely unlikely that Gray is moved. Moreover, the Red Sox might have some competition for Gray’s services– Off the Bench wrote recently about how he’d be a great fit with the Dodgers.
The Next Level:
Julio Teheran, RHP, 25, ATL
2016 Stats: 18 GS, 3-8, 118.2 IP, 107 SO, 4.28 K/BB, 2.96 ERA, 0.97 WHIP
Contract: $3.47m (2016), $6.47m (2017), $8.17m (2018), $11.17m (2019), Team Option $12m, $1m buyout (2020)
Julio Teheran’s 2016 is basically the Yin to Sonny Gray’s Yang: Coming off of a down-year, he’s almost completely rebuilt his trade value with a 2.96 ERA and sub-1.00 WHIP. With the resurgence, it could be argued that Teheran belongs up a level with Gray (if Gray’s tier is below Fernandez, that is), as his extremely team-friendly contract and 3.36 career ERA would render him untouchable if he played anywhere outside of Georgia. Teheran does seem to be outperforming his career peripherals, so it’s an open question as the the value teams will place on him. His career FIP sits at a very average 3.91, almost 60 points greater than his career ERA, and while he’s put together a career best 4.28 K/BB ratio this year, last year he posted a career-worst 2.34. Brave’s GM John Coppolella continues to insist that Teheran will not be traded, but if the Red Sox are willing to move one of Benintendi or Moncada, it is fair to wonder whether that would change his mind.
Drew Pomeranz, 27, LHP, SDP
2016 Stats: 17 GS, 8-7, 102.0 IP, 115 SO, 2.80 K/BB, 2.47 ERA, 1.06 WHIP
Contract: $1.35m (2016), Arb2 (2017), Arb3 (2018)
Many people will be quick to discount Pomeranz as a legitimate “addition” to their team’s rotation, but realistically he represents the most affordable and likely option for many. The Padres have already made him available, and it would probably be wise of them to capitalize on his great season while they still can. Pomeranz’s 3.18 FIP is quite a bit higher than his 2.47 ERA (not to mention his career 3.66 ERA and 3.93 FIP). But he has improved his strikeout rate to more than 10 K/9, which, along with PetCo, could account for some of the improvement. While there are questions about how many more innings Pomeranz can really be expected to provide– he has already exceeded his career high– a lefty starter on such a favorable contract who can reasonably be expected to provide a sub-4.00 ERA is a very valuable commodity in today’s market.
Ervin Santana, 33, RHP, MIN
2016 Stats: 16 GS, 3-7, 93.0 IP, 68 SO, 2.62 K/BB, 4.06 ERA, 1.29 WHIP
Contract: $13.5m (2016), $13.5m (2017), $13.5m (2018), Team Option $14m, can become guaranteed (2019)
Santana probably makes a lot more sense for teams other than the Red Sox. At the age of 33, it would be unwise to count on a performance any better than what he has contributed so far. At a price of $13.5 million for each of the next two and a half seasons, it would probably take a little bit of a cash exchange for the Twins to get anything significant in return. Regardless, if looking for some level of consistency at the back of the rotation, the 4.16 career ERA Santana would be a reasonable addition. After all, he is only two seasons removed from a 196.0 IP, 3.95 ERA, 3.39 FIP season in Atlanta.
Two-Month Rentals:
Rich Hill, 36, LHP, OAK
2016 Stats: 13 GS, 9-3, 76.0 IP, 90 SO, 3.21 K/BB, 2.25 ERA, 2.57 FIP
Contract: $6m (2016)
At the age of 36, Rich Hill has re-invented himself. After pitching in the Independent League just a year ago, Hill has now pitched his way to the top of the starting pitching trade market despite a brief stint on the disabled list. Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe recently detailed Hill’s journey and improvements (check it out here), but to summarize: thanks to hard work and a new understanding of his own repertoire, Rich Hill is for real. Maybe he shouldn’t be relied on as a number one, but he is perfectly capable of holding down a middle of the rotation spot on a playoff team. What the Athletics can get in return for Hill will likely be suppressed by his status as a rental and the fact that he has already pitched more innings in a season than he had since 2007, but he will still command a reasonable return. Expect the Athletics to ask about some of the Red Sox’s top prospects, but also expect that if a deal gets done, it will probably involve names in the next tier. Names like Deven Marrero and Trey Ball come to mind.
Andrew Cashner, 29, RHP, SDP
2016 Stats: 13 GS, 3-7, 61.2 IP, 44 SO, 1.63 K/BB, 5.40 ERA, 1.56 WHIP
Contract: $7.15m (2016)
Something that should have become evident at this point is that the available pitchers on this year’s trade market are not necessarily top-of-the-rotation arms that have consistent track records of success. Instead, many of the players on this list have shown glimpses of number 2-3 starter material, but have been unable to maintain the performance year after year. Cashner also falls into this category. Since 2013, Cashner’s ERA numbers have ranged from 2.55 in 2014 to 5.40 this season. His FIPs over that span have come in at 3.55, 3.09, 3.85, and 5.58 this season. Likewise, Cashner’s K/9 rate has ranged from 8.04 to 6.42 in that span. So what to expect of Cashner moving forward? If his FIP numbers are any indication, then the second half of 2016 should see him improve back towards the sub-4.00 mark that he has put up in the past. That being said, his strikeout rate of 8.04 in 2015 was probably an anomaly, as he typically falls around 6.5. Moving from a pitching-friendly NL park to a hitter-friendly AL East would also be a cause for regression. Ultimately, Cashner would be another number four or five starter on a World Series team. However, in a contract year and having a down season, it may be worth buying low on him in the hopes that he can pitch like the Cashner of 2014 during the stretch run.
Jeremy Hellickson, 29, RHP, PHI
2016 Stats: 18 GS, 6-6, 105.2 IP, 93 SO, 3.44 K/BB, 3.92 ERA, 1.20 WHIP
Contract: $7m (2016)
The last player on this list, Jeremey Hellickson, may in fact be the one most likely acquired by the Red Sox (whether fans like to hear it or not). Pitching at about a league average level, at a reasonable price, in a contract year, Hellickson is the type of back-of-the-rotation acquisition that Boston sorely lacks. The results in the ERA department have not been pretty the past few seasons, but Hellickson has maintained a FIP between 3.88 and 4.60 in each season of his seven-year career. The most striking difference in Hellickson’s performance this season is the continued improvement of his BB/9 rate, which has decreased each of the last three seasons, from 2.97 to 2.50. That, and the highest K/9 rate since his rookie season (7.92), has led Hellickson to regain some of the value that he had earlier in his career. If the asking price is fair, which it should be, then Hellickson would be an unexciting, albeit worthwhile, addition.
-Alex Vacca
Header Photo Courtesy of Fantasy411
Statistics Courtesy of FanGraphs.com
Contracts Courtesy of Baseball Prospectus Cot’s Contracts
