Baseball’s superstars are what make the game fun. They are oft credited with a team’s successes, and just as soon blamed for its failures. But the truth of the matter is less hyperbolic. Baseball is not like the NBA where superstars can easily–and are counted on to–take over a game. Lebron touches the ball on the vast
majority of the Heat’s possessions, but last year Justin Verlander started just three more games for the Tigers than Brad Penny. In basball, the best players do indeed change a team’s fortunes, but it’s the worst players that really make the difference. Thanks to sabermetrics like WAR, we can tell just how much.
For every Mike Trout who has helped his team win games, there is a Jeff Francouer who has hurt his team beyond belief. So what would the standings look like if the worst player on every team were replaced by that mythical ‘replacement’ WAR depends upon in its calculations?
I did a little mathematicianizing and came up with the Brent Morel Experiment. It’s an .xlsx document because that’s the way it worked out this week. (Special Note: If anybody wants to lend some secrets on formatting, go for it.)
It may be painfully difficult to comprehend, but in the spirit an interactive blogging experience, I wanted to give readers all the nitty gritty detail. I’ll expound upon some of the more glaring examples.
First, Michael Young has been a major detriment to the Rangers offense this year. It’s hard to fault Ron Washington for playing him, as his .300 OBP and 3 HR’s are lightyears away from a characteristic line for the 35 year old veteran. But if Young had even played up to replacement level this year, the Rangers would: A) have a better record than the Yankees; B) trail only the Nationals for the best record in baseball; and C) have an 8 game lead over the A’s for the AL West crown.
Young has averaged a WAR of just over 2 throughout his career. If he had performed up to that level, Texas would sport a record of 71-43, the best in baseball.
After Michael Young’s disappointment comes the travesty that is Jeff Francouer. Like Billy Bean of old, he has The Look, but consistently fails to produce. He’s never lived up to his scouted “potential,” but this season he’s managed to post the worst WAR in baseball. But it’s not like he’s the lone culprit in Kansas City. If Jeff were playing up to replacement level, the Royals would still have the 5th worst record in the Majors.
Now let’s look at what has been by far the biggest disappointment in baseball this season. Tim Lincecum’s career WAR entering this season was 4.74 and included two seasons over 7 (incidentally he won the Cy Young both those years). This year he sports a -1.6. HAd Lincecum just pitched at a replacement level, the Giants’ new wining percentage would put them a game and a half up on the Dodgers. I didn’t even bother calculating how far they’d be running away with the NL West had he maintained his career WAR.
The Brent Morel Experiment was not intended to be the end all, be all application of WAR, rather it was born out of the realization that Brent Morel really stunk for the White Sox in the early part of the season, and that his general suckitude could really come back to bite them at the end of the year. You might think this whole line of thinking is a crock, but I can’t be the only cynic who takes some pleasure in knowing just how much bad players hurt their team.
For another look at baseball’s worst players, check out The Three Worst Players in MLB that I crowned earlier this year.
-Sean Morash
